David Fleer
Bristlecone Value Partners, LLC
12301 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 320
Los Angeles, CA 90025 USA
Work 1-877-806-4141

Quarterly Commentary – Third Quarter 2011

October 28th, 2011

The whiff of fear alluded to in our last commentary gained force in the third quarter, with looming worries about domestic recession and European sovereign debt woes growing.  The result was a strong downdraft in equity markets, with the S&P 500 down about 14% in the quarter and most other equity categories down further. On October 3, the S&P 500 dipped below 1100, the lowest level of the year, putting the peak to trough (so far, at least) decline since April right at 20%. That is slightly worse than the downturn experienced last summer.

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Monthly Digest – October 2011

October 19th, 2011

A little more than two months ago, ideological debate over government spending reached a crescendo in Washington.  A stalemate over increasing the U.S. debt ceiling left Congress and the President wrangling with the possibility of default on government obligations.  Though the two parties disagreed on much, there seemed to be nearly unanimous agreement that default was to be avoided at all costs.  Should the U.S. find its creditworthiness questioned—the argument went—then borrowing costs would skyrocket, creating a de-facto tax increase on all Americans.  Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner even went as far as to warn that a U.S. default would cause “catastrophic damage to the economy, potentially much more harmful than the effects of the financial crisis of 2008-2009.”  Read the rest of this entry »


Large Cap Value Commentary – September 2011

October 7th, 2011

The best thing about September is that it is finally over. The S&P 500 index declined by 7.2%, and the Large Cap Value model portfolio dropped even further during the same period. Investors appeared to have a split personality throughout the month, alternatively showing signs of extreme pessimism and optimism, with the market registering frequent daily swings of 3% or more.

At the time of this writing, there does not appear to be any resolution yet of the situation in Europe. It seems that politicians across the pond are making the economic situation worse by prescribing a medicine, austerity, which keeps pushing the sickest patient, Greece, further into recession and fiscal deficits. Read the rest of this entry »

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